5 Auto Industry Predictions for 2009
In no particular order, here are 5 changes we see taking place in the auto industry in 2009.
1. Gas stays below $2.50 a gallon (nationwide average).
Look for gas prices to spike in price in May at about $2.50, before falling to around $2 for the balance of 2009.
2. Ford sells Volvo.
This is an easy one – Volvo, while unprofitable, is an excellent nameplate and certainly has a value. The trick is finding an interested suitor…and financing for the deal. Assuming that the financial system stabilizes in the next 3-6 months, Volvo is as good as gone from the Ford family.
3. GM announces the closer of Saab and/or Saturn.
As part of a restructuring, GM will announce the closure of Saab and/or Saturn sometime in the next 11 months. Neither of these brands is profitable, and GM simply can’t afford to keep both. If Saab gets the axe, don’t be surprised if the Swiss government steps in with a rescue package to save it.
4. Ford’s stock price doubles.
While it’s important to note that we have no expertise here in picking stocks, and for the record we’re absolutely and completely unqualified to offer stock advice, we’re pretty sure Ford’s stock price (currently around $2) doubles in 2009.
5. Overall 2009 North American sales numbers meet or beat 2008.
The popular prediction right now is that overall sales in 2009 will be worse than 2008, but this seems a little ridiculous. After all, 2008 was the worst sales year in decades, and was largely a result of two factors; 1) A tremendous air of uncertainty surrounding the economy and the major automakers and 2) A complete and total lack of credit. As the credit markets begin to relax, automakers won’t have so much trouble getting consumers financed this year. Additionally, President Obama and congress are certain to encourage consumers to buy vehicles to help prop-up the big three, and government support (including a possible tax credit for buying a car) will serve to alleviate concerns about the long-term viability of Ford, GM, and Chrysler.
What do you think? Are we spot-on, or do you think we’ve completely lost our minds?
Note: Tundra Headquarters is not affiliated with Toyota Motor Company.
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