2011 Truck Depreciation Data and Resale Value Facts
Jason Lancaster | Mar 14, 2011 | Comments 22
Analysis Shows Tundra Biggest Winner, Titan Biggest Loser
Last week an automotive data company called VinCentric announced their 2011 Best Value awards. While Toyota was the big winner – Toyota models that won 9 segments – the Tundra was surprisingly shut out. Considering how well the Tundra has done in other value award competitions, this was a surprise.
VinCentric named the F150 the best full size pickup value, but when you read VinCentric’s explanation of the F150’s victory something seems wrong:
The victory was earned with low insurance costs, segment leading fuel economy, and the lowest depreciation rate in the segment
Lowest depreciation in the segment? That’s not right…is it? Here’s how we went about trying to prove VinCentric’s data:
1. The 5 year depreciation figure shown for the 2011 F150 2WD Extended Cab XL on the Vincentric website ($14,425) is a very, very close match to the following calculation:
- The KBB ‘fair market price’ of a 2011 F150 2wd Extended Cab XL minus (-)
- All applicable rebates (assuming cash buyer) minus (-)
- KBB “Good” condition trade-in value on a 2006 F150 2WD Extended Cab XL, assuming no adds for equipment and 75,000 miles
If you do the math using data from KBB, you’ll arrive at a 5 year depreciation figure for the aforementioned F150 of $14,482…less than a $60 discrepancy with the VinCentric number. Assuming that KBB.com data is reasonably accurate, we used the same formula to calculate data for all the other trucks in the segment.
Here are the results:
| 2011 Cash Price | 11′ Financed Price | 06′ Trade-In | 5 Year Depreciation | 5 Year Dep. % | ||
| KBB “Fair” price minus likely rebates | KBB “Fair” price with financing rebates only | “Good” condition from KBB.com. | Cash Price | Financed | Based on Cash Price. Lower is better | |
| Silverado Ext. Cab LS | $26,198.00 | $28,698.00 | $10,600.00 | $15,598.00 | $18,098.00 | 59.54% |
| F150 Supercab XL* | $24,307.00 | $25,307.00 | $9,825.00 | $14,482.00 | $15,482.00 | 59.58% |
| Sierra Ext. Cab SL | $26,395.00 | $28,895.00 | $10,650.00 | $15,745.00 | $18,245.00 | 59.65% |
| Titan King Cab S** | $23,829.00 | $27,329.00 | $9,050.00 | $14,779.00 | $18,279.00 | 62.02% |
| Tundra Dbl Cab SR5*** | $24,672.00 | $26,922.00 | $13,575.00 | $11,097.00 | $13,347.00 | 44.98% |
| Ram 1500 QuadCab ST | $23,372.00 | $25,327.00 | $9,175.00 | $14,197.00 | $16,152.00 | 60.74% |
NOTES: All trucks are 2wd with 6.5′ beds. Trade-in is based on 75k miles and no adds, extra equipment, etc. for all vehicles. Many trucks have changed equipment over the years, so this is just a best-effort guess. Most trucks in 2006 had V8’s, but many new base-model trucks have a V6.
*Likely cash rebate includes $1000 Ford Motor Credit financing bonus cash. We’re assuming someone would finance a new F150 to get this rebate, and then pay off the loan in a few months.
**The ‘XE’ model was used for comparison in 2006 as it seems to be the closest comparable trim level to the ‘S’
***The 2011 SR5 model was used because it was the lowest trim available in 2006. The cash price reflects a $2,250 rebate, but some regions have $3,000 available.
Interesting side notes about the table above:
- Look at how close the Ford and GM trucks are in terms of resale…this might explain VinCentric’s note about Ford and GM being in stiff competition with one another in previous years.
- The Nissan’s resale value is significantly worse than the competition, but the up-front cost of a Titan right now is lowest in the segment. The Titan might be the best deal on the market if you need a cheap, bare-bones truck and don’t care about re-selling it later. The King Cab S is a nicer truck than a new F150 (at least in terms of stated features and a bigger engine) which is why that price is so incredible.
VinCentric Depreciation Analysis Seems Questionable
Considering we used a very basic methodology and were able to arrive at a depreciation number that was incredibly close to VinCentric data for the F150, we have to wonder what they’re looking at when they say the F150 has “the lowest depreciation rate in the segment.” Simple-to-collect data from KBB.com shows that the Tundra is far-and-away the leader in retained value in the pickup segment.
We’re not alone in our conclusion about the Tundra’s superior resale either – IntelliChoice recently named the Tundra the best truck value in 2011, and a quick check of KBB.com resale value figures (basic trucks like reg. cab F150 vs reg. cab Tundra, loaded trucks like Lariat Limited F150 Crew vs. Limited Tundra Crew) shows that the Tundra has better resale value than the F150 across the spectrum…and the difference isn’t really that close once we start looking at the more expensive, consumer-type pickups.
Granted, KBB.com resale value figures and IntelliChoice could both be completely wrong, as could depreciation data from Edmunds.com (see their True Cost To Own® figures for a 2010 F150 and a 2010 Tundra – the Tundra’s resale value is significantly higher on their site too), but that seems unlikely. Depreciation/resale value data from numerous sources all says the same thing: The Tundra’s resale value is higher than any other truck in the half-ton segment.
Ownership Costs Are More Than Resale
Despite the evidence of the Tundra’s superior resale value, that’s not enough for the Tundra to be the best value. Total ownership costs – such as financing costs, maintenance and repairs, insurance, fuel, etc. – have to be considered when declaring which truck is the best value.
Taking these other ownership costs into account, it’s certainly possible that the F150 is a less expensive truck to own. Parts are widely available, so insurance and repair costs are lower. Ford’s new 2011 F150 has some of the most fuel-efficient engines available, and that’s a big deal when you start looking at total ownership costs. Fuel is a significant portion of a truck’s total cost over a five year period (25-30%). Still, none of the data is conclusive, and the numbers are inherently unreliable. All we can say for sure is that, historically, the Toyota trucks hold their value significantly better than any other manufacturer.
Conclusion: Any honest analysis of half-ton resale value must conclude that the Tundra has the lowest depreciation rate of any truck in the half-ton segment, as this data is echoed by multiple sources. However, when it comes to total ownership costs (fuel in particular), Ford’s new F150 may have indeed taken the lead…but this is contested by at least one other study.
Filed Under: Tundra News
If I was concerned about ownership cost’s I would have gotten a Honda civic. I have my tundra because it the best truck available for what I need it to do.
Race! Right Cater? 🙂
I agree with Cater. AS of NOW, the tundra is the best 1/2 ton on the market even though it does get say 2-3 less mpg than the Ford or Chevy. Who cares about gas mileage in a truck say getting 17 mpg vs. 20 mpg. The engine, tranny, less depreciation, better resale value and looks, and ownership experience tundra rules in my book. As far as insurance cost, in my experience, my 2010 tundra is very, very cheap with my insurance company ONLY 15 bucks higher every 6 months than my 2009 corolla since the corolla’s collision is very high since it is much smaller and thus huge damage done in a collision to the corolla vs. my tundra.
Getting 20mpg’s isn’t that hard to do. At least where I’m at. Resale isn’t that much on my mind since I have “peace of mind”. No need to get something else or when I’m ready for a platinum edition.
Cater – I certainly understand that perspective. The point I was trying to make here is that the Tundra is clearly the best truck on the market in terms of holding it’s value. In terms of total ownership cost? It’s harder to know for sure, but the F150’s better fuel economy would seem to indicate it’s the cheapest option (all things being equal, which of course they are not).
mk – You touched on a very good point about real-world gas mileage vs. EPA ratings. A truck might be rated to get 20 mpg, but in the real world it may only get 16mpg. This happens quite a bit, so it’s a good thing to remember whenever anyone talks about ownership cost projections.
Mickey – Your mileage is legendary man – most people don’t have your kind of success in that department. 🙂
I got 20 mpg ONLY (DC 4wd stock 5.7L) on very long trips mostly interstate driving very little hills, mostly straight/level roads, going 62-65 mph. Anything above say 70 mph, and my mpg drops to around 15-16 mpg tops long distance driving as well. I think overinflating the tires to around 38 psi helps a tad also (maybe .5 mpg or so at most). My .02 cents. Also can’t wait very shortly here in the colder midwest when the gas switches over to summer blended gas vs. winter blended gas which has more E10 thus decreasing gas mileage as well.
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while resale value is important, i dont plan on selling mine. i tend to keep vehicles longer than kbb will rate them, but nada still does. my z-71 was 15 years old when i sold it and my GN just turned 25. i figure my 2010 tundra should surely outlast that 1995 gmc z71.
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I’m not in the market for resale either. Any vehicle I buy is usually around for the long haul meaning 10+ years unless it’s been wrecked. 🙂
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I would never buy another Tundra. While towing our 26ft trailer last summer, we had to swerve for a peice of furniture that fell off the truck in front, so did my cousin with his F150 who was towing his rig right behind us. Bottom line, our Tundra came unglued, we wound up in the ditch with a twisted frame and three of the bolts holding the box broken off. The Tundra as we found out later, has a highly unstable design and is an awful towing platform. After the dust settled our dealer offered us no help, our insurance agent reccomends the F150 so we bought a 2010 and the truck has grown on us. We now see the reason why people buy these trucks, I was never a Ford guy but this truck is built with amazing skill as it does many things really well…there is much more thought in the design and the shocks outboard of the frame make this a towing dream compared to the Tundra..you take your life in your hands with one of those!
sorry to break it to you but the Tundra has outboard mounted shocks just like the ford it also has a triple section frame (boxed at the front heavily reinforced c section middle conventional c section rear) nearly identical in design to what you find on all domestic 2500 and 3500 trucks. A fully boxed frame as on all domestic 1/2 tons is cheaper to make than a triple section. Glad to hear you like your F150 they are a fine truck but you gave up to early on the Tundra.
We also tow a 32 ft trailer and took the chance of the Tundra. Its ok but now after 25,000 miles since the purchase of the 2011 Tundra we hear a struggle in the motor. Went this weekend to try and trade up for a F350 and resale is not what was expected on our trade in. Sticker on the Tundra we got was 40+ and now its worth 25k 8 months later. NOT HAPPY AT ALL! Should’ve gone with the F350 in the first place. At least we know it tows.
Brennan – Not sure what to say other than I understand why you’re turned off. If you believe the Tundra you were driving didn’t handle your emergency adequately – and you’re certain the F150 would have done better – then it makes sense to switch.
Avid – So your truck had a sticker of $40k – is that what you paid? I’m guessing you got a discount and/or zero percent financing. If you paid $35k (including rebate), then you lost 10k by using a brand new truck for 25,000 miles…is that about right?
My question is, what would a 2011 F350 be worth with 25k miles? I’d bet the number wouldn’t be much different.
I guess it doesn’t matter – if you think you can buy a new vehicle, put more miles on it than most people do in a full year of ownership, then get all your money back, you’re going to be disappointed no matter what.
Good luck with the F350 – they’re great trucks and they’ll definitely tow more.
What a lopsided comparison. Base model extended cabs vs a crew cab tundras SR5.
Total BS! (note to author, I currently own a 2010 Tacoma TRD)
Trevor – As the comparison said, the SR5 is the lowest equipment level available (Tundra Grade wasn’t available in 07′). If you want to run the numbers on an 2012 and 2008 this time next year, be my guest. I’m quite sure the Tundra will win it no matter how you put the comparison together…that’s why the Tundra has won an award for resale value from KBB or Edmunds.com every year since it debuted.
I currently work for Toyota so I have some input for the group. This is not meant to single anyone out just to inform the group. For those concerned with gas mileage most trucks in the half ton segment are within 5 mpg of each other. @Brennan, the Tundra does use outbound staggered rear shocks to help reduce wheel hop, not side to side stability. However it does have trapezoid-ally mounted leaf springs that do enhance side to side stability. The truck also features what is called a triple-tech frame. This basically makes the truck progressively more flexible the farther it gets to the rear of the truck where you need the flexibility. Its hard to determine which is a better truck when you have 2 different vehicles towing 2 different motor homes with 2 different reaction times and driving capability. As far as towing ratings Toyota is the ONLY one who rates their truck according to ASC standards. I can tow 5,000 pounds with my Camry but that doesn’t mean its safe. The Tundra passed a rigorous test of up hill down hill around curves and in emergency situations with 10,400 pounds on the hitch.
@AVID, with me being a car salesman I will tell you this. Any time that you buy any vehicle and trade it in with only 25,000 miles you are going to lose ALOT of money. If you paid 40 grand and u got 38 grand when you traded it in the they would have to sell it for between 39 and 41 grand. So you as the consumer would you buy a used truck for a couple grand less than a brand new one? The answer is no.
This website states that Ford parts are more readily available which lowered its cost of ownership. The Toyota Tundra is 85% American parts were as the Ford is roughly 60% American parts. The Tundra is the most American made truck on the market. So how can the parts not be readily available.
Along with the purchase of any new Toyota you get what is called Toyota Care. This means your first 2 years of maintenance are FREEEEE!!! This drastically reduces your cost of ownership.
All in all the Tundra absolutely IS the best truck on the market in every aspect.
Clay – Thanks for the great comments. Please don’t leave your contact info on the site…just link your name to your website, LinkedIn profile, etc.
And please, keep on commenting! 🙂
I purchased a 2012 Tundra SR5 Crew Cab last Jan 2012. Since that time I have racked up 22000 miles on it and have towed just about every concievable combination of trailers. The largest being a 2000 lb trailer with 3 tons of sand on it for a total of 8000 lbs. Unlike other trucks, I never had any brake fade, pushing or other undesirable towing experiences. My 2004 Silverado pulling a trailer a third of this weight was pushed through an intersection twice in the time I owned it. Sure the truck only gets 17 MPG average but I have gotten up to 19.3 in the winter months, but unlike my Cheverolet, and Ford F-150 I haven’t had to take it in for repairs yet. I had to take the Silverado in 4 times before it even had 15000 miles abd the tranny went out on the F-150! Just sayin…. There is a lot to be said for reliability and just plain feeling safe in a truck with a large load in tow.
SteveM,
Good stuff.
-Tim
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