2007 Tundra Sales Projected To Exceed 200k

Based on our sales projections, Toyota will sell approximately 205k Tundra trucks this year. That’s more than a 60% increase in sales over 2006. Clearly, the Tundra has been an unmitigated success for Toyota.

Toyota’s success doesn’t show any signs of slowing down either. The upcoming 2008 model Tundra should sell better than the current model for a few reasons. First of all, Toyota has stated they intend to reduce the amount of standard equipment on the Tundra, especially on the base model. We expect the base model Tundra will be approximately $2000 less expensive, while the top-end models will maintain the same pricing. Reduced cost on the base model should translate into greater fleet sales of the new Tundra, a market that Toyota currently is not competitive in with the 2007 model.

Additionally, Toyota’s 2007 production management was less than perfect. Dealers were often given trucks that weren’t in demand and then required to sell those vehicles before they would be allocated better-selling models. Indeed, many a dealer we know received a glut of “fleet” type vehicles early in the model year even as demand for the popular Double Cab exceeded supply, to say nothing of CrewMax production holdups. Now that Toyota has some hard sales data, they will be able to improve their production mix.

Based on improved production mix and lower production costs, we expect Tundra sales in 2008 to exceed 250k units. Depending upon Toyota’s ability to reduce costs on their base model “fleet” configuration, it’s entirely possible that Tundra sales could hit 300k units, however new models from Ford and Dodge will certainly impact Toyota Tundra sales somewhat.

As we’ve said before, at these higher sales levels, it will be profitable for Toyota to produce both a Diesel Tundra and a Hybrid Tundra in the coming years. Let’s hope Tundras continue to sell well.